Well we are past the halfway point of this season, the trade deadline has come and gone, and teams are gearing up for the stretch run.
Chicago at Philly
Chicago is currently a 5.5 underdog on the road in Philly. Bears have been on a skid lately, much due to the struggles of Trubusky. Eagles have been hot and cold all season but are still in the divisional hunt in the NFC East.
Over 41.5 points
First TD Scorer Philly D/ST +1800 or Miles Sanders +1400
Washington at Buffalo
Washington has moved it’s eyes to the future and are sending our Dwayne Haskins for his first career start. In limited action this season Haskins has compiled a stat line of 12-22 140 yards 0 TDs and 4 INTs. Fully expect the Bills Defense to eat the young QB alive today.
Under 37.5 Points
First TD Scorer Josh Allen +700 or Frank Gore +650
Minnesota at Kansas City
Patrick Mahomes is inactive again today. Even with Mahomes, the Chiefs have been shakey at home this season with a 1-3 record in Arrowhead Stadium. Vikings march into Kansas City on a 4 game winning streak. They seem to have hit their stride and I don’t see Matt Moore doing much damage to this Vikings Defense.
Welcome to the Tuesday NHL Line Change where I will be sharing my top 3 puck lines picks of the night along with a few player props that I wouldn’t mind throwing some money at. There are 9 games around the NHL tonight and plenty of opportunity to make some money.
San Jose Sharks @ Boston Bruins
The Sharks have had a slow start to the season and are ending their 5 game road tip tonight in Boston. When it comes to the goaltending tonight, this is a battle between David and Goliath. The two Sharks goalies, Martin Jones and Aaron Dell, are sitting with .892 and .891 save percentages on the season, which is good enough for 44th and 45th in the league. On the other side we have Tuukka Rask just dominating every team he plays and leading the league with a .952 save % and 2 shoutouts. He has only allowed 9 goals on 6 starts and is 5-0-1.
The Bruins have arguably the best top line the NHL right now and Pastrnak leads in both goals and points. As a team they are averaging over 3 goals per game and are getting to shoot against Martin Jones, one of the worst goalies in the league this season. Look for this to be an absolute WWE Smackdown and the Bruins to win by 3 or more goals tonight. I also like Marchand to record 3 or more points at +550 and Pastrnak to score the first goal at +750
Bruins Alt. Puck Line -2.5 – +215
Edmonton Oilers @ Detroit Red Wings
The Red wings are 0-7-1 in their last 8 games and just don’t look to be getting much better. They struggle offensively and if you can’t score, you can’t win.
The Oilers have found their missing puzzle piece in James Neal who has 10 goals on the season and is giving Edmonton the hope they need to finally give McDavid a cup run… at least for now. The Oilers lead the Pacific Division and are coming off an absolute beat down from the Florida Panthers Sunday night where they lost 6-2. They will need to show that they can bounce back from difficult losses to prove they are the Real Deal this season, and the Red Wings are the perfect opportunity to do that. For Player Props, I like James Neal scoring a goal at +150.
Oilers Puck Line -1.5 – +200
Chicago Blackhawks @ Nashville Predators
The Blackhawks are heading out to Nashville for this Central Division matchup. There is not much to say about this game outside of the fact that Chicago is a terrible team right now and Nashville is looking to take over the top spot in the Central. The Blackhawks are converting on the Power Play and just 9.7% on the season which is truly awful, and I just don’t see the Preds losing on home ice, or even letting this be a close game. If you wanted to take a stab at a shutout prop for the games this evening, go ahead and take the Preds to not allow a goal in the first 60 minutes at +2200.
Predators Puck Line -1.5 – +133
Drink of the Game(s)
It has snowed over a foot here in the Denver area these past couple of days and it continues to fall as temperatures look to drop into the negatives tonight. I will be warming up with some Hot Cocoa and Peppermint Schnapps to take in the action.
Jaylen Samuels has been ruled INACTIVE for tonight’s game – pivot accordingly! We see a small uptick in points for JuJu and big value in Snell Jr. Here is our updated lineup
Dolphins @ Steelers (-14.5) – MNF
Holy cow could this game have any more potential to be a complete disaster? The Steelers are favored by two touchdowns at home against the Dolphins who are managing to average a measly 10.5 points per game. The Steelers defense has played solid this year and will be jumping at the chance to get to Dolphins QB Fitzpatrick early and often. This is shaping up as a game where the Steelers get an early lead and just pound the rock on the ground to kill the clock, though they will still be scoring touchdowns along the way.
Steelers Defense Potential
Showdown lineups have started trending towards a higher usage in DST (thanks Patriots) and even a significant % of Captain usage (Patriots 40% yesterday) and the Steelers are in a position tonight to gain a ton of points – but at a FLEX price of $8k, will it be enough to justify using them at Captain?
To answer that, I want to look at the potential that James Conner has tonight. He should get 15+ looks on the ground and 5+ catches in the game tonight which gives him potential for 150+ total yards and he always has 2 TD upside. Let’s say he goes for 120 total yards with 5 catches and a TD – that puts us at 23 DraftKings points – 34.5 in the CPT spot. The Steelers would certainly need to get a DST Touchdown to match that kind of production, and the additional money saved by using them as the Captain would allow us to move Boswell up to McDonald – I’m not sure that McDonald has a huge advantage on Boswell, and while the D may be productive tonight – I don’t think they will out perform Conner.
I think Conner will be the highest owned player in the slate and be close to the highest Captain % along with Steelers D. The contest we are playing in is very small with only 28 lineups, so we don’t want to be too risky. I think that a Steelers game script that has a lot of pounding the ground is the most likely so I want to stack Samuels with Conner, use Rudolph to correlate with both as they do well in the passing game, play the Defense because it’s the Dolphins and then I need to play one Miami guy so I’m going with Ballage. He will rely on finding pay dirt in order to help us out here, but that is true for any of the Dolphins players and Ballage is +200 as an anytime TD scorer which is tied for the Dolphins favorite with Walton (though he’s much cheaper than Walton).
Notice there is no JuJu… Total pass yards for Rudolph props are set at 239 yards, and with Conner, Samuels and McDonald, I just don’t think there is enough of an upside for JuJu unless he can find the endzone twice (which is totally possible against this Dolphins defense, but I don’t think the game script favors the Steelers throwing a lot).
Today we posted our usual article that included a brief look at the World Series game ahead, our takes on the outcome and what our DraftKings showdown lineup was going to be. I’d like to bring back three quotes from that article briefly:
While Urquidy was not able to fan 10 batters on this particular outing, he did strikeout 4 over 5 innings while only giving up 2 hits and walking no one. On the other side Corbin went 6 innings, gave up 7 hits and 4 runs (refer to previous article) and struck out 5. This was good enough for Corbin to get us a few points, and Urquidy to grab the W with ease.
I shouldn’t have included any of my own story in this as Correa said it all. Bregman was due to have a monster game, but a GRAND SLAM?! That was just icing on the cake, ESPECIALLY because he was gifted the opportunity in Game 3 and did nothing. What a bounce back for Bregman.
I said Corbin had a knack to give up 4-5 runs per game and that I wanted to stack the Astros. Chirinos and Marisnick were cheap and allowed me to do so. I talked a little smack about their inability to go deep, so Chirinos had to prove me wrong once again – they combined for 4 hits, 1 Home Run, 1 Double, 2 RBI’s, 1 Stolen Base, 1 Run and 1 walk. Total they cost $9400 on DK and put up 34 DK Points! HOLY SMOKE SHOW. That was absolute icing on the cake after building with Urquidy and Bregman.
The only downside of this contest was that we actually tied for first so instead of cashing out for $5,000, we had to settle for $4,000. But that still means new kitchen counter tops for my wife which makes her happy, me happy and allows us to keep this blog rolling in full force.
As always tonight the goal was to get rich, or get drunk trying.
We got plenty drunk! And took one step closer to getting rich.
The Astros went into Game 3 being down 0-2 with not much going for them. They went on to play small ball and string together 4 runs while only giving up 1 to give them their first win of this World Series. 3 of those 4 runs came on 1-run singles and Chirinos was the only one to go yard this game. The pitching wasn’t top-notch with 20 total hits in the game, but the score stayed low. Tonight Houston turns to their bullpen to try to even things up against Patrick Corbin
Corbin put up 27.1 DK points in his last start even with giving up 4 runs on 4 hits and walking 3. He accomplished this against the Cardinals by striking out 12 over 5 innings – his most strikeouts in over a month since he fanned 11 in his previous start against the Cardinals. Corbin isn’t a stranger to giving up hits and runs but his strikeout potential will more than make up for the those.
Urquidy is getting the ball for the Astros and has the potential to get them amped up to start this game. He has the potential to go 5+ innings and has shown that he can strikeout in the double digits. He costs $2600 less than Corbin on DraftKings and has the potential to match him in points – especially with extra points for getting the W.
Our Captain choice is hand downs Urquidy for this game. Being able to roster a pitcher with the potential go 6 inning and strikeout 10 for a captain cost of $11,700 is incredible and will allow us to spend up for a couple big bats. With Corbin’s potential to give up 4 or 5 runs during his stint, this gives Urquidy a perfect opportunity to earn the W while racking up points along the way.
Did you miss what I said about Corbin being able to put up 27 points even though he gives up 4 runs? He is hands down our first lock for the rest of our roster. Next up is Alex Bregman. Bregman has been quiet lately, and failed to do anything with the bases loaded last night. The Nationals intentionally walked Brantley to get to Bregman and the Astros bench went a little nuts. Clearly disrespectful to Bregman who was already been feeling the pressure, but still unable to perform. I don’t see that lasting long and neither do his teammates. Check out what Correa had to say about the situation
With Corbin’s ability to give up runs, and the Astros need to prove that their regular season wasn’t a fluke – I want to stack the Astros bats and Chirinos and Marisnick allow me to do just that for cheap. While neither are known for going deep (outside of Chirinos last night) – both will have the ability to drive in runs, or draw walks to set up the big boys up front. This will also let us plug in Altuve as our last batter of the evening and have a nice balance with the 2, 4, 7 and 8 slots in the Houston lineup.
Look for Houston to tie this thing up, and us to get back on a winning streak with DraftKings.
Drink of the Game
Happy National Trick-or-Treat night!
Yes, that is just as stupid as it sounds. Today’s kids have no clue what it’s like going door-to-door, talking to strangers, getting loads of free candy and doing it all on a school night! They have to go trick-or-treating while it’s light out and on the weekends and have their candy checked for marijuana (or is that just Colorado?)
Either way, tonight we are celebrating with Halloween-themed drinks and we are going big tonight as we get rich, or get drunk trying:
We have a lot of action going on this weekend and I see potential to do some damage.
First up we have Wisconsin at Ohio State. Badgers are coming off their first loss of the season with a shocking defeat at Illinois. Clearly the Badgers were looking forward to this weekend’s match up and forgot to show up last Saturday. Wisconsin is much better than they were last week so I LOVE LOVE LOVE these guys getting 14.5 points today. Badgers have a nasty defense and Ohio State has yet to play anyone of note. Looks for this to be a low scoring tilt, so the under could be a safe play as well, under 47.
Next up the battle in Baton Rouge, LSU vs Auburn. I think Auburn is way overrated. Their best win was a fluke TD in week one. Meanwhile LSU discovered offense is part of the game and have been laying waste to everyone in their path. Look for LSU to carve up their Tiger counterparts and cover the 10.5 in Baton Rouge.
Lastly, for all of you who like big spreads, check out Boston College at Clemson. Currently sitting at 34.5 points. Boston College is terrible, “how bad” they lost to Kansas buy 3 touchdowns AT HOME! Clemson is trying to prove they are the best in the country so look for them to drop a 50 spot on BC today.
Gonna have some Cold Snacks today while I we wait for the snow storms to hit tomorrow.
No one thought the Astros would be down 0-2 heading to the nation’s Capital after putting Cole and Verlander on the mound to start the World Series. Yet here we are, staring down memory lane and having flashbacks to 2007 and the “what-ifs” that came with Rockies miraculous run to the show. Should we factor history into our DraftKings lineups tonight, or focus on the stats and probabilities? I’m going with the latter, and I think Houston takes a step forward tonight.
Greinke is taking the mound for the Astros and will going up against Sanchez who made a surprising performance against the Cardinals in Game 1 of the NLCS where he pitched 7.2 innings of 1 hit ball.
Greinke’s postseason started off rocky when he got lit up by Tampa Bay for 6 runs on 5 hits (3 home runs). His next two starts were more consistent, giving up 10 hits and 4 runs over 10.1 innings against the Yankees. Greinke has the potential to rack up double digit strikeouts, and the Nationals are no strangers to K’s this postseason. Greinke has the chance to show his old self tonight, and even if he doesn’t get the W – I think he puts on a show.
Sanchez has had a great postseason allowing just 5 hits and 1 run over 12.2 innings of ball. He struck out 9 against the Dodgers and 5 against the Cardinals and is definitely capable of going deep into the contest. He seems to have found his groove and settled in, and is a lock for tonight’s contest.
I do not want to go into too much detail about the batters because I will be starting one pitcher at captain and using the other pitcher in FLEX. This will not leave much salary for the remaining 4 positions, so I likely won’t be spending up on a Soto, or Springer. If you use a batter a captain, or go for value to try and save some money at the CPT spot – you will likely need a HR to make it worth it.
Contest Selection and Captain
As always – Single entry contests tonight. I am going to throw this lineup in a few because I am feeling good about it. One has 11 entries, one has 55 and one has 135. This mean Captain selection will either put you in the running, or keep you from being able to cash. Period. I’m rolling with Greinke – High strikeout potential. Knows the situation, and can execute.
Well here we are almost through another week. So lets make some money and have fun tomorrow! Vikings are taking on the Redskins tonight for our weekly prime time game.
Thursday has featured some lopsided victories and I do not expect tonight to be any different when the Redskins stroll into Minneapolis to take on the Vikings.
Currently, the Vikings are 17 point favorites. Redskins are a poorly executed 2 point conversion from being 0-7, good job Miami. Look for the Vikings to get up early and just coast into an easy victory tonight.
I like to get things started early. I am gonna start the night with Vikings -4 in the first quarter. Going with that I like the over in the first quarter at 7.5. Vikings might do that on their own.
Also the over/under tonight and that one has me slightly worried. Currently sitting at 42.5. This game has the chances of sitting right under that, so the under is what my gut is telling me.
Pizza is on the way and gonna enjoy the game with some Sam Adams Octoberfest (yes thats how it’s spelled on their website).
Statistics don’t lie because you can manipulate them to say just about anything you want. Welcome to your weekly dose of stats and why they matter to your fantasy lineup. This week’s focus: Puck Luck in the NHL.
What is Puck Luck?
If you’re anything like my father, right now you’re saying to yourself “Puck Luck? How stupid. Luck is just a result of hard work.” And while you may be correct – there have been some people way smarter than myself who have created a formula for determining “Puck Luck” in the NHL. Defined as “PDO” – Puck Luck is the measurement of a team’s overall shooting percentage PLUS their overall save percentage (both measured at even strength) The acceptable range for PDO is between 98-102 with the general agreement that teams outside of that range will regress back towards the 100 even mark. Any team with a PDO higher than 102 is HOT. Right now they have stellar goaltending and the puck seems to find the net more often than not when they shoot. A team with a PDO under 98 is having a tough time scoring and their goalies are Swiss cheese. On it’s own, this stat is tough to apply to any single night. Is a team that is hot going to stay hot for another night? Who knows. But here’s what I wanted to take a look at as we head into Thursday Night Hockey on Beers and Bets.
Puck Luck In Relation To Points
My line of thought is assuming that a team with a PDO higher than 102 should have more points than the average teams and a team with a PDO lower than 98 should have less points than the average teams. I took the Average number of total points so far this season (10.3) and expanded that out to include any team in the point range 8-12. This should give us a good sample size (16 teams) of “Average” in the league right now.
As you can see, when it comes to PDO vs. Points, there is a strong correlation but a few outliers as well. The outliers are the teams I want to focus on immediately because they are either due for a swift downfall, or a quick climb to glory.
Vegas Golden Knights
The Golden Knights have a PDO of 96.7 (3rd to last) while being tied for 4th in the league with 14 points. That is scary. Their shot percentage is low at 7.7% and their save percentage is low at .89%. The Vegas PDO is under what is considered “normal” which means they are UNDER PERFORMING. How could a team who is tied for 4th place in the entire league be under performing? Not to mention on Friday they square off against a Colorado Avalanche team who not only is the most over performing team in the league in regards to PDO, but is also missing one member of it’s three headed monster in Rantanen. Stats don’t lie – this game won’t be pretty for the Avalanche. Vegas by 2+ Goals – Book it
At the opposite end of the spectrum, the Blackhawks are right at the top of the “normal” level of PDO at 101.2, yet somehow only have 6 points on the season so far. While the slight elevated PDO may suggest that they will regress a small amount, it doesn’t factor in that clearly something is not clicking for Chicago and they will not be able to rebuild without figuring out the X-Factor. Their goaltending is in the top quarter but their shooting percentage is lower than average. Expect Chicago to start putting some goals in the net, but to still be losing a decent amount of games. Tonight they go up against a Philly team with a slightly low PDO, average Save % and average shooting %. This spot is exactly what the Blackhawks need to try and find their groove. Blackhawks 3 – Philly 2
Rangers vs. Sabres
The Rangers have a slightly low PDO of 99.4 and have managed just 5 points on the season. They are tied for last in the league with Ottawa and the future is not looking bright. The Rangers are hosting the Sabers tonight, and the Sabers are THE HOTTEST TEAM IN THE LEAGUE. The Sabers lead the team in Points, are top 5 in shooting and 2nd place in save %. This leads to a PDO of 104.7 which is a decent amount outside of the norm so we should expect some regression… just like I mentioned last night before the Sabers went down 0-2 against the Sharks. I believed in my pick and the Sabers came back to win the game late, and the whole performance caused small dip in PDO even though Buffalo got the W.
This game has Sabers written ALL OVER IT. The Rangers have a PDO slightly above 99 but only have 5 points on the season. This indicates that not only are they bad, but they will continue to be bad. Hot will beat cold EVERY. DAMN. TIME. Don’t hesitate to LOCK IN the Sabers on the -1.5 (+210) puck line along with the Over currently at 6 goals (-120).