11/3 NFL Preview, Bets, and Parlays

Well we are past the halfway point of this season, the trade deadline has come and gone, and teams are gearing up for the stretch run.

Chicago at Philly

Chicago is currently a 5.5 underdog on the road in Philly. Bears have been on a skid lately, much due to the struggles of Trubusky. Eagles have been hot and cold all season but are still in the divisional hunt in the NFC East.

Game Picks

  • Eagles -5.5
  • Over 41.5 points
  • First TD Scorer Philly D/ST +1800 or Miles Sanders +1400

Washington at Buffalo

Washington has moved it’s eyes to the future and are sending our Dwayne Haskins for his first career start. In limited action this season Haskins has compiled a stat line of 12-22 140 yards 0 TDs and 4 INTs. Fully expect the Bills Defense to eat the young QB alive today.

Game Picks

  • Under 37.5 Points
  • First TD Scorer Josh Allen +700 or Frank Gore +650

Minnesota at Kansas City

Patrick Mahomes is inactive again today. Even with Mahomes, the Chiefs have been shakey at home this season with a 1-3 record in Arrowhead Stadium. Vikings march into Kansas City on a 4 game winning streak. They seem to have hit their stride and I don’t see Matt Moore doing much damage to this Vikings Defense.

Game Picks

  • Vikings -5.5
  • Over 46.5
  • Vikings -3 First half

Parlay of the Day

  • Colts ML, -105
  • Bills – 11.0, -105
  • Buccaneers and Seahawks Over (51.5), -105
  • Lions ML, +120

Bet $20 win $307.45

Good luck today everyone!

I’ll be enjoying the games today with a Pug Ryan’s Dunkel. Check them out!

Monday Night Showdown – UPDATED

Conner will get reps on the ground, targets in the air and has the potential to rack up 2+ TD’s tonight against a Dolphin’s defense that is lackluster to say the least. He is our auto-lock for the Captain spot tonight.

INJURY UPDATE

Jaylen Samuels has been ruled INACTIVE for tonight’s game – pivot accordingly! We see a small uptick in points for JuJu and big value in Snell Jr. Here is our updated lineup

Dolphins @ Steelers (-14.5) – MNF

Holy cow could this game have any more potential to be a complete disaster? The Steelers are favored by two touchdowns at home against the Dolphins who are managing to average a measly 10.5 points per game. The Steelers defense has played solid this year and will be jumping at the chance to get to Dolphins QB Fitzpatrick early and often. This is shaping up as a game where the Steelers get an early lead and just pound the rock on the ground to kill the clock, though they will still be scoring touchdowns along the way.

Steelers Defense Potential

Showdown lineups have started trending towards a higher usage in DST (thanks Patriots) and even a significant % of Captain usage (Patriots 40% yesterday) and the Steelers are in a position tonight to gain a ton of points – but at a FLEX price of $8k, will it be enough to justify using them at Captain?

To answer that, I want to look at the potential that James Conner has tonight. He should get 15+ looks on the ground and 5+ catches in the game tonight which gives him potential for 150+ total yards and he always has 2 TD upside. Let’s say he goes for 120 total yards with 5 catches and a TD – that puts us at 23 DraftKings points – 34.5 in the CPT spot. The Steelers would certainly need to get a DST Touchdown to match that kind of production, and the additional money saved by using them as the Captain would allow us to move Boswell up to McDonald – I’m not sure that McDonald has a huge advantage on Boswell, and while the D may be productive tonight – I don’t think they will out perform Conner.

FLEX

I think Conner will be the highest owned player in the slate and be close to the highest Captain % along with Steelers D. The contest we are playing in is very small with only 28 lineups, so we don’t want to be too risky. I think that a Steelers game script that has a lot of pounding the ground is the most likely so I want to stack Samuels with Conner, use Rudolph to correlate with both as they do well in the passing game, play the Defense because it’s the Dolphins and then I need to play one Miami guy so I’m going with Ballage. He will rely on finding pay dirt in order to help us out here, but that is true for any of the Dolphins players and Ballage is +200 as an anytime TD scorer which is tied for the Dolphins favorite with Walton (though he’s much cheaper than Walton).

Notice there is no JuJu… Total pass yards for Rudolph props are set at 239 yards, and with Conner, Samuels and McDonald, I just don’t think there is enough of an upside for JuJu unless he can find the endzone twice (which is totally possible against this Dolphins defense, but I don’t think the game script favors the Steelers throwing a lot).

Cheers

World Series Game 4 – CASH UPDATE

Tonight we took down our first tournament since the inception of Beers and Bets and oh boy, did it feel good!

Recap

Today we posted our usual article that included a brief look at the World Series game ahead, our takes on the outcome and what our DraftKings showdown lineup was going to be. I’d like to bring back three quotes from that article briefly:

While Urquidy was not able to fan 10 batters on this particular outing, he did strikeout 4 over 5 innings while only giving up 2 hits and walking no one. On the other side Corbin went 6 innings, gave up 7 hits and 4 runs (refer to previous article) and struck out 5. This was good enough for Corbin to get us a few points, and Urquidy to grab the W with ease.

I shouldn’t have included any of my own story in this as Correa said it all. Bregman was due to have a monster game, but a GRAND SLAM?! That was just icing on the cake, ESPECIALLY because he was gifted the opportunity in Game 3 and did nothing. What a bounce back for Bregman.

I said Corbin had a knack to give up 4-5 runs per game and that I wanted to stack the Astros. Chirinos and Marisnick were cheap and allowed me to do so. I talked a little smack about their inability to go deep, so Chirinos had to prove me wrong once again – they combined for 4 hits, 1 Home Run, 1 Double, 2 RBI’s, 1 Stolen Base, 1 Run and 1 walk. Total they cost $9400 on DK and put up 34 DK Points! HOLY SMOKE SHOW. That was absolute icing on the cake after building with Urquidy and Bregman.

The only downside of this contest was that we actually tied for first so instead of cashing out for $5,000, we had to settle for $4,000. But that still means new kitchen counter tops for my wife which makes her happy, me happy and allows us to keep this blog rolling in full force.

As always tonight the goal was to get rich, or get drunk trying.

We got plenty drunk! And took one step closer to getting rich.

Cheers!

World Series Game 4 – DraftKings Showdown

The Astros will be running a bullpen game – Jose Urquidy will get the start and will go as long as he can.

Houston Looks To Tie Things Up

The Astros went into Game 3 being down 0-2 with not much going for them. They went on to play small ball and string together 4 runs while only giving up 1 to give them their first win of this World Series. 3 of those 4 runs came on 1-run singles and Chirinos was the only one to go yard this game. The pitching wasn’t top-notch with 20 total hits in the game, but the score stayed low. Tonight Houston turns to their bullpen to try to even things up against Patrick Corbin

Pitching

Corbin put up 27.1 DK points in his last start even with giving up 4 runs on 4 hits and walking 3. He accomplished this against the Cardinals by striking out 12 over 5 innings – his most strikeouts in over a month since he fanned 11 in his previous start against the Cardinals. Corbin isn’t a stranger to giving up hits and runs but his strikeout potential will more than make up for the those.

Urquidy is getting the ball for the Astros and has the potential to get them amped up to start this game. He has the potential to go 5+ innings and has shown that he can strikeout in the double digits. He costs $2600 less than Corbin on DraftKings and has the potential to match him in points – especially with extra points for getting the W.

Captain

Our Captain choice is hand downs Urquidy for this game. Being able to roster a pitcher with the potential go 6 inning and strikeout 10 for a captain cost of $11,700 is incredible and will allow us to spend up for a couple big bats. With Corbin’s potential to give up 4 or 5 runs during his stint, this gives Urquidy a perfect opportunity to earn the W while racking up points along the way.

FLEX

Did you miss what I said about Corbin being able to put up 27 points even though he gives up 4 runs? He is hands down our first lock for the rest of our roster. Next up is Alex Bregman. Bregman has been quiet lately, and failed to do anything with the bases loaded last night. The Nationals intentionally walked Brantley to get to Bregman and the Astros bench went a little nuts. Clearly disrespectful to Bregman who was already been feeling the pressure, but still unable to perform. I don’t see that lasting long and neither do his teammates. Check out what Correa had to say about the situation

“Tomorrow, he’s going off”

Correa

With Corbin’s ability to give up runs, and the Astros need to prove that their regular season wasn’t a fluke – I want to stack the Astros bats and Chirinos and Marisnick allow me to do just that for cheap. While neither are known for going deep (outside of Chirinos last night) – both will have the ability to drive in runs, or draw walks to set up the big boys up front. This will also let us plug in Altuve as our last batter of the evening and have a nice balance with the 2, 4, 7 and 8 slots in the Houston lineup.

Look for Houston to tie this thing up, and us to get back on a winning streak with DraftKings.

Drink of the Game

Happy National Trick-or-Treat night!

Yes, that is just as stupid as it sounds. Today’s kids have no clue what it’s like going door-to-door, talking to strangers, getting loads of free candy and doing it all on a school night! They have to go trick-or-treating while it’s light out and on the weekends and have their candy checked for marijuana (or is that just Colorado?)

Either way, tonight we are celebrating with Halloween-themed drinks and we are going big tonight as we get rich, or get drunk trying:

We will be sipping on this Caramel Apple Cocktail from www.MadeWithHappy.com

  • Gran Anejo Rum
  • Apple Brandy
  • Butterscotch Schnapps
  • Apple Cider

I’ll post a picture on our Twitter, and make sure to give a us a follow while you are there.

World Series Showdown – Game 3

The Nationals are taking a 2-0 lead back to the Capital for Game 3 against the Astros on Friday. Team’s leading the a pot-season series 2-0 go on to win that series 85% of the time – so do we trust the Nationals to stay hot at home?

Series Recap

No one thought the Astros would be down 0-2 heading to the nation’s Capital after putting Cole and Verlander on the mound to start the World Series. Yet here we are, staring down memory lane and having flashbacks to 2007 and the “what-ifs” that came with Rockies miraculous run to the show. Should we factor history into our DraftKings lineups tonight, or focus on the stats and probabilities? I’m going with the latter, and I think Houston takes a step forward tonight.

Pitchers

Greinke is taking the mound for the Astros and will going up against Sanchez who made a surprising performance against the Cardinals in Game 1 of the NLCS where he pitched 7.2 innings of 1 hit ball.

Greinke

Greinke’s postseason started off rocky when he got lit up by Tampa Bay for 6 runs on 5 hits (3 home runs). His next two starts were more consistent, giving up 10 hits and 4 runs over 10.1 innings against the Yankees. Greinke has the potential to rack up double digit strikeouts, and the Nationals are no strangers to K’s this postseason. Greinke has the chance to show his old self tonight, and even if he doesn’t get the W – I think he puts on a show.

Sanchez

Sanchez has had a great postseason allowing just 5 hits and 1 run over 12.2 innings of ball. He struck out 9 against the Dodgers and 5 against the Cardinals and is definitely capable of going deep into the contest. He seems to have found his groove and settled in, and is a lock for tonight’s contest.

Batters

I do not want to go into too much detail about the batters because I will be starting one pitcher at captain and using the other pitcher in FLEX. This will not leave much salary for the remaining 4 positions, so I likely won’t be spending up on a Soto, or Springer. If you use a batter a captain, or go for value to try and save some money at the CPT spot – you will likely need a HR to make it worth it.

Contest Selection and Captain

As always – Single entry contests tonight. I am going to throw this lineup in a few because I am feeling good about it. One has 11 entries, one has 55 and one has 135. This mean Captain selection will either put you in the running, or keep you from being able to cash. Period. I’m rolling with Greinke – High strikeout potential. Knows the situation, and can execute.

FLEX

Let’s get that $$$!

Cheers

10/24 TNF Pick Six: Part Two

NFL Odds – MyBookie

Six Leg Parlay

Part two of this weekly series involves a six leg NFL parlay that includes the Thursday Night Football game. No in-depth analysis. No crunching numbers. Just an old school Pick Six.

Minnesota Vikings -16.5 (-115)

New York Giants ML +255

Jacksonville Jaguars -6 (-110)

New England Patriots -13.5 (-110)

Green Bay Packers -4 (-105)

Oakland Raiders ML (+260)

Parlay Pays Out 169:1 (Nice)

10/24 TNF Pick Six

Welcome to Thursday Night Football Pick Six! This two part weekly article will cover the DraftKings Thursday Night Football Showdown as well as my favorite choices for a 6-leg NFL Parlay that includes the TNF game.

Redskins @ Vikings Showdown

Remember when I said that we finally had a Monday Night football game that wasn’t going to be a snooze fest? Well, I was right… the Patriots defense put on a SHOW. Sam Darnold was “seeing ghosts” and we were seeing dollar signs

There isn’t a better game script than Darnold playing from behind in his second game back against the best defense in the NFL. Lock them in tonight.

– ME

The Patriots started us off on the right foot and tonight we look to continue that success by banking on a similar strategy.

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings are 5-2 on the season and averaging almost 28 points per game. Their offensive weapons range from steady (Adam Thielen OUT) to explosive (Diggs), and Dalvin Cook cleans up the rest. Those 3 players account for 75% of all Vikings touchdowns. They are priced accordingly and we are going to have to decide who will give us the best value tonight.

Diggs has really stepped up his game and is averaging over 18 yards per reception. Thielen is not far behind (14.5YPR) and seems to find the end-zone more consistently. With Thielen sitting this game out for a hamstring injury, his market share needs to go somewhere. That means Diggs is about to have a day and Olabisi Johnson is also going to have an opportunity to be more involved. Rudolph will be there, just like he has been all season.

Dalvin Cook is the rushing threat for Minnesota. He averages over 100 yards rushing per game and over 5 yards per attempt on the season. He has 8 touchdowns and gets some involvement in the receiving game as well. He should be a lock for tonight.


Washington Redskins

The Redskins haven’t had the worst season so far (looking at you Miami) but they are 1-6 and average a measly 12.9 points per game. With Chris Thompson ruled out and AP Questionable…… I’m trying to find some positives for this team but there really just isn’t any outside of Terry McLaurin – Over 17 yards per reception and 5 TD’s on the season. The only downside is his volume, averaging 4 receptions per game.

HOWEVER – Wendell Smallwood is in a position to open a can of whoop-ass in terms of DraftKings points. If AP is not ready to go, or is limited – that leaves Smallwood ($1800 – DK) taking reps as a starter. With his small price tag, it won’t take much for it to payoff, especially if he is involved in the passing game. I expect him to be HIGHLY owned.

Game Flow

I expect this game to go quickly in the favor of the Vikings. They are 16 point favorites at home, and I think that’s generous for the Redskins. Washington can’t generate anything on the ground (just two rushing TD’s all season) and are up against a Vikings D that has only allowed 1 rushing TD all season and a measly 90 yards rushing per game against. AP being out only furthers this narrative. Vikings will go up early and for good, and the Redskins will need to throw the ball. A. Lot. Does this script remind you of anything?

Darnold will be playing from behind and forced to try and move the ball through the air.

-ME

Oh that’s right! Exactly what I said about Darnold before he got lit up for 4 INT’s and a fumble. The Vikings are not as good at defending the pass as the Patriots and, though just barely, the Redskins are better producing through the air than the Jets. That means I don’t expect a shutout, but with an expected total of 13 for the ‘Skins – we might not get a whole lot of action. I think if you give Keenum enough attempts (which he will have), he can find the end zone at least once – which means McLaurin will be a great option.

I do believe the Vikings will run the game and I do believe going with 5 Vikings players is the right move here. Defense included.

DraftKings


Contest Selection

We will be entering our lineup into a Single Entry contest with 388 total entries. First place pays out 50X and min. cash is 2X.

Captain

Our captain options will boil down to
1. Volume
2. Big play potential
3. Not a Redskins player

This leaves us with Cook, Diggs, and Cousins. As mentioned above, I think the Vikings will get things started quickly and never turn back. That means a lot of rushing plays to keep the clock moving and end this blowout as quickly as possible. I think Cook will outperform Diggs in terms of DK points, but the extra $1000 in salary we gain from having Diggs as CPT instead of Cook and will prove valuable.


FLEX

Can we trust Diggs in this situation? Absolutely.

That extra $1000 we saved is going to allow us to upgrade Dan Bailey to Kyle Rudolph. Which leaves us with the lineup below. We cover the Vikings from every angle (except QB) and Smallwood gives us the best value on the Redskins.

DraftKings lineup for Washington Redskins vs Minnesota Vikings

Drink Of The Game!

Breckenridge Brewery Christmas Ale – Cheers!

Part Two: Pick Six Parlay

10/22 World Series Showdown

My Oh My!

– Dave Niehaus

UPDATED

We did it again! Using the relief pitched method ending up paying off for us late in the game when Doolittle came in and retired 4 straight with one strike out.
This allowed us to jump up into a nice cash for the smaller contest, though we stayed 1 place out of the cash line on the larger contest. This is a nice example to show that sometimes, the smaller single entry contests can be valuable. The pitching wasn’t as locked down as we thought it would be thanks to Soto, but we still managed with Cole as the captain. We will see you again with another Showdown lineup for Game 3 on Friday.

It doesn’t matter if you were there. It doesn’t matter you were watching. It doesn’t matter if you even care about baseball. Hearing this call will give you chills. If you were there…if you were watching… and you do care… I can only imagine the emotion it brings out.

World Series Showdown Game 1

Baseball in October is something that doesn’t mean much to me. As a Rockies fan, we haven’t had a whole lot of experience in this area. I was a sophomore in high school during Rocktober 2007 which gave me enough of a taste to understand the history, the tradition, the chase and the ensuing agony of defeat. I remember that feeling, and it won’t be coming back tonight… let’s get to game 1.


Pocket Rockets

That feeling in poker when you peek at your cards and see two Aces is tough to describe. Your heart rate increases, you can feel your face becoming flush (no pun intended) and your mind starts to calculate how you want to proceed… Welcome to the World Series Showdown Game 1.

Gerrit Cole vs. Max Scherzer will kick things off and this is tee’d up to be an absolute pitchers duel. Cole has pitched 22.2 innings this post-season giving up only 1 run while striking out 32. In the other dugout, Scherzer has pitched an even 20 innings this post season giving up only 4 runs while striking out 27. Between the two pitchers, all 5 runs have come from giving up home runs. One for Cole and 3 for Scherzer. You can’t have a lineup that doesn’t include either Cole or Scherzer as your Captain tonight AND have the other pitcher in one of your FLEX spots. The winning lineup is going to come down to whoever has the batter that steps up and takes one of the Aces deep.

Captain Spot

It’s a coin flip. Both pitchers are priced so close that your lineup won’t change much depending on who is in the CPT spot. I believe that Cole will out perform Scherzer tonight in the K department which will give a little more flexibility if he does happen to give up a HR so I’m going with Cole and my Captain.

FLEX

Like I mentioned, my first lock would be whatever pitcher I did not use in my CPT spot. Scherzer is in. This leaves us with $20.6k to fill the remaining 4 roster spots. Both pitchers have given up an average of 3 hits per game, so we need to find those opportunities. A lot of lineups will try to use a relief a pitcher to save salary and stack a bigger name, and in this situation, I can’t say I’m opposed. Here is my lineup without using a relief pitcher:

Not too bad. You get the 2 and 3 hitters from opposite teams paired with someone on each deeper in the lineup. It spreads out the potential to snag points from a hit, a walk, etc. but not necessarily to correlate your scoring on a play like say, a two-run home run. All relief pitchers are priced at 3k which gives a little extra room to play with our lineup. Here we gain some correlation between our Houston batters and lose both of our deep lineup guys:

I don’t hate this lineup – but it does limit your offensive possibilities to a degree. Doolittle isn’t going to come in a strike out 6 batters to close the game, you’re just hoping he doesn’t get taken yard on his first pitch and get yanked immediately (if he even comes in at all).

I am going to roll with the relief pitcher lineup tonight because I think hits will be so limited that you need to have a piece of that action to cash, and I think Gurriel has a better shot of putting up points than Reddick and Zimmerman combined.

Contest Format

I will be playing in two single entry contests for the World Series Showdown this evening. The first with 20 entries and the second with 113. I fully expect Cole and Scherzer to be owned in 100% of entries in both contests and I would not be shocked to see Cole as the CPT in 100% of the 20 entry contest and 90% in the 113 entry contest.

Drink of the Game

Jim Beam Rye Whiskey and Coke – If the first inning turns into a Cardinals fiasco, the coke might become optional.

10/21 NFL Showdown – MNF Patriots/Jets

UPDATE

We have our first cash on Beers and Bets after nailing the Patriots domination over the Jets. Nothing big, but 42nd out 681 was good enough to 3X our entry and start things off on the right foot.

White did not snag a TD which ended up hurting, and a Bell TD would have swung in our favor as 90% of the lineups ahead of had the Patriots DST in the CPT spot. We are back at it again on Thursday Night when the Redskins head to Minnesota to reenact what we just witnessed here on MNF.

Breakdown

Alright folks, we finally have a Monday night game that isn’t going to be a complete snooze fest. The 6-0 Patriots visit the 1-4 Jets…. oh wait, I thought this wasn’t going to be snooze fest?

The Patriots will put this game away in the first half, which makes for some difficult decisions at the Captain position tonight. As always, we want to look for correlation within our lineups to ensure we maximize the game flow should it go how we expect. If you were going to Max Enter 150 lineups into an MME, this would be a great game to spread the love around 4-5 Pats at the Captain spot, but as usual, I’m playing in a single entry tournament this evening (681 entries) so I want to go with a high floor, high ceiling guy to build around.

Game Flow

As I mentioned above, I think the Patriots will put this game away in the first half. They are 10 point favorites on the road, and have been firing on all cylinders for the entire season. Vegas has the implied totals at Pats – 26.5 and Jets – 16.5.

Sam Darnold only played one game before getting a bout of Mono and has only played one game since returning from the illness. He got the luxury of playing with the lead the entire time both games (Save for one drive at the end of the Buffalo game where he went 2-8 for 9 yards)

The last time these two teams played, the Patriots were up 30 – 0 before 2 defensive TD’s from the Jets, so I have zero confidence in their ability to hit their implied total today.

Patriots will go up early and control the clock with their ground game. Darnold will be playing from behind and forced to try and move the ball through the air. He hasn’t been tested against the clock and trying to keep the game relevant, so I’m banking on the Patriots D taking advantage of some mistakes tonight.

Lineup

The Patriots have too many weapons which makes it difficult to rely on anyone on any given game day. I do think they will keep the ball on the ground a lot and so my biggest decision is between White and Michel for Captain – DraftKings is 1 point PPR so I think White is the safest bet here as he gets equal opportunities in the rushing game as he does the passing game. He is $11.1k in the Captain spot so we will need him to find paydirt to give our lineup a shot at cashing, but I’m betting on 2 TD’s tonight.

I mentioned earlier that I thought Bell was the only value on the Jets offense, and he will be the only Jet I play tonight. A 5-1 Patriots onslaught will win the slate tonight. Edelman is the safest bet to rack up targets out of the Pats WR’s and I believe he will the highest owned and highest CPT % tonight.

A strategy that has paid off in the past, but not often, is stacking White and Michel together. I think this is the perfect opportunity for this stack as the rush game will be the main point of attack and especially with Burkhead being ruled out tonight. This also means I want to fit in Brandon Bolden because the Pats LOVE to utilize as many RB’s as possible to throw everyone off in fantasy. Stacking 3 RB’s on the same is a strategy I will ONLY employ for the Patriots in a blowout scenario. Proceed with caution.

This leaves me with $7500 left and the Pats defense is the most expensive DST I’ve seen on a showdown this season. I hope this will turn people off of using them because there isn’t a better game script than Darnold playing from behind in his second game back against the best defense in the NFL. Lock them in tonight (playing a DST is another strategy I rarely employ in showdown).

Beverage of the Game

Tonight I will be sweating my lineup while also streaming the best team in the NHL (Shoutout to Altitude for not being available to watch anywhere) and so I will be drinking Breckenridge Brewery Avalanche Ale in support of the Colorado Avalanche tonight – at least when my showdown lineups crashes and burns, I will have the ice to soothe the pain.