10/29 Tuesday NHL Line Change

1029-line-change-1.mp3

Welcome to the Tuesday NHL Line Change where I will be sharing my top 3 puck lines picks of the night along with a few player props that I wouldn’t mind throwing some money at. There are 9 games around the NHL tonight and plenty of opportunity to make some money.

San Jose Sharks @ Boston Bruins

The Sharks have had a slow start to the season and are ending their 5 game road tip tonight in Boston. When it comes to the goaltending tonight, this is a battle between David and Goliath. The two Sharks goalies, Martin Jones and Aaron Dell, are sitting with .892 and .891 save percentages on the season, which is good enough for 44th and 45th in the league. On the other side we have Tuukka Rask just dominating every team he plays and leading the league with a .952 save % and 2 shoutouts. He has only allowed 9 goals on 6 starts and is 5-0-1.

The Bruins have arguably the best top line the NHL right now and Pastrnak leads in both goals and points. As a team they are averaging over 3 goals per game and are getting to shoot against Martin Jones, one of the worst goalies in the league this season. Look for this to be an absolute WWE Smackdown and the Bruins to win by 3 or more goals tonight. I also like Marchand to record 3 or more points at +550 and Pastrnak to score the first goal at +750

Bruins Alt. Puck Line -2.5 – +215

Edmonton Oilers @ Detroit Red Wings

The Red wings are 0-7-1 in their last 8 games and just don’t look to be getting much better. They struggle offensively and if you can’t score, you can’t win.

The Oilers have found their missing puzzle piece in James Neal who has 10 goals on the season and is giving Edmonton the hope they need to finally give McDavid a cup run… at least for now. The Oilers lead the Pacific Division and are coming off an absolute beat down from the Florida Panthers Sunday night where they lost 6-2. They will need to show that they can bounce back from difficult losses to prove they are the Real Deal this season, and the Red Wings are the perfect opportunity to do that. For Player Props, I like James Neal scoring a goal at +150.

Oilers Puck Line -1.5 – +200

Chicago Blackhawks @ Nashville Predators

The Blackhawks are heading out to Nashville for this Central Division matchup. There is not much to say about this game outside of the fact that Chicago is a terrible team right now and Nashville is looking to take over the top spot in the Central. The Blackhawks are converting on the Power Play and just 9.7% on the season which is truly awful, and I just don’t see the Preds losing on home ice, or even letting this be a close game. If you wanted to take a stab at a shutout prop for the games this evening, go ahead and take the Preds to not allow a goal in the first 60 minutes at +2200.

Predators Puck Line -1.5 – +133

Drink of the Game(s)

It has snowed over a foot here in the Denver area these past couple of days and it continues to fall as temperatures look to drop into the negatives tonight. I will be warming up with some Hot Cocoa and Peppermint Schnapps to take in the action.

World Series Showdown – Game 3

The Nationals are taking a 2-0 lead back to the Capital for Game 3 against the Astros on Friday. Team’s leading the a pot-season series 2-0 go on to win that series 85% of the time – so do we trust the Nationals to stay hot at home?

Series Recap

No one thought the Astros would be down 0-2 heading to the nation’s Capital after putting Cole and Verlander on the mound to start the World Series. Yet here we are, staring down memory lane and having flashbacks to 2007 and the “what-ifs” that came with Rockies miraculous run to the show. Should we factor history into our DraftKings lineups tonight, or focus on the stats and probabilities? I’m going with the latter, and I think Houston takes a step forward tonight.

Pitchers

Greinke is taking the mound for the Astros and will going up against Sanchez who made a surprising performance against the Cardinals in Game 1 of the NLCS where he pitched 7.2 innings of 1 hit ball.

Greinke

Greinke’s postseason started off rocky when he got lit up by Tampa Bay for 6 runs on 5 hits (3 home runs). His next two starts were more consistent, giving up 10 hits and 4 runs over 10.1 innings against the Yankees. Greinke has the potential to rack up double digit strikeouts, and the Nationals are no strangers to K’s this postseason. Greinke has the chance to show his old self tonight, and even if he doesn’t get the W – I think he puts on a show.

Sanchez

Sanchez has had a great postseason allowing just 5 hits and 1 run over 12.2 innings of ball. He struck out 9 against the Dodgers and 5 against the Cardinals and is definitely capable of going deep into the contest. He seems to have found his groove and settled in, and is a lock for tonight’s contest.

Batters

I do not want to go into too much detail about the batters because I will be starting one pitcher at captain and using the other pitcher in FLEX. This will not leave much salary for the remaining 4 positions, so I likely won’t be spending up on a Soto, or Springer. If you use a batter a captain, or go for value to try and save some money at the CPT spot – you will likely need a HR to make it worth it.

Contest Selection and Captain

As always – Single entry contests tonight. I am going to throw this lineup in a few because I am feeling good about it. One has 11 entries, one has 55 and one has 135. This mean Captain selection will either put you in the running, or keep you from being able to cash. Period. I’m rolling with Greinke – High strikeout potential. Knows the situation, and can execute.

FLEX

Let’s get that $$$!

Cheers

Thursday Night Football Bets

Well here we are almost through another week. So lets make some money and have fun tomorrow! Vikings are taking on the Redskins tonight for our weekly prime time game.

Thursday has featured some lopsided victories and I do not expect tonight to be any different when the Redskins stroll into Minneapolis to take on the Vikings.

Currently, the Vikings are 17 point favorites. Redskins are a poorly executed 2 point conversion from being 0-7, good job Miami. Look for the Vikings to get up early and just coast into an easy victory tonight.

I like to get things started early. I am gonna start the night with Vikings -4 in the first quarter. Going with that I like the over in the first quarter at 7.5. Vikings might do that on their own.

Also the over/under tonight and that one has me slightly worried. Currently sitting at 42.5. This game has the chances of sitting right under that, so the under is what my gut is telling me.

Pizza is on the way and gonna enjoy the game with some Sam Adams Octoberfest (yes thats how it’s spelled on their website).

10/24 TNF Pick Six: Part Two

NFL Odds – MyBookie

Six Leg Parlay

Part two of this weekly series involves a six leg NFL parlay that includes the Thursday Night Football game. No in-depth analysis. No crunching numbers. Just an old school Pick Six.

Minnesota Vikings -16.5 (-115)

New York Giants ML +255

Jacksonville Jaguars -6 (-110)

New England Patriots -13.5 (-110)

Green Bay Packers -4 (-105)

Oakland Raiders ML (+260)

Parlay Pays Out 169:1 (Nice)

10/24 TNF Pick Six

Welcome to Thursday Night Football Pick Six! This two part weekly article will cover the DraftKings Thursday Night Football Showdown as well as my favorite choices for a 6-leg NFL Parlay that includes the TNF game.

Redskins @ Vikings Showdown

Remember when I said that we finally had a Monday Night football game that wasn’t going to be a snooze fest? Well, I was right… the Patriots defense put on a SHOW. Sam Darnold was “seeing ghosts” and we were seeing dollar signs

There isn’t a better game script than Darnold playing from behind in his second game back against the best defense in the NFL. Lock them in tonight.

– ME

The Patriots started us off on the right foot and tonight we look to continue that success by banking on a similar strategy.

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings are 5-2 on the season and averaging almost 28 points per game. Their offensive weapons range from steady (Adam Thielen OUT) to explosive (Diggs), and Dalvin Cook cleans up the rest. Those 3 players account for 75% of all Vikings touchdowns. They are priced accordingly and we are going to have to decide who will give us the best value tonight.

Diggs has really stepped up his game and is averaging over 18 yards per reception. Thielen is not far behind (14.5YPR) and seems to find the end-zone more consistently. With Thielen sitting this game out for a hamstring injury, his market share needs to go somewhere. That means Diggs is about to have a day and Olabisi Johnson is also going to have an opportunity to be more involved. Rudolph will be there, just like he has been all season.

Dalvin Cook is the rushing threat for Minnesota. He averages over 100 yards rushing per game and over 5 yards per attempt on the season. He has 8 touchdowns and gets some involvement in the receiving game as well. He should be a lock for tonight.


Washington Redskins

The Redskins haven’t had the worst season so far (looking at you Miami) but they are 1-6 and average a measly 12.9 points per game. With Chris Thompson ruled out and AP Questionable…… I’m trying to find some positives for this team but there really just isn’t any outside of Terry McLaurin – Over 17 yards per reception and 5 TD’s on the season. The only downside is his volume, averaging 4 receptions per game.

HOWEVER – Wendell Smallwood is in a position to open a can of whoop-ass in terms of DraftKings points. If AP is not ready to go, or is limited – that leaves Smallwood ($1800 – DK) taking reps as a starter. With his small price tag, it won’t take much for it to payoff, especially if he is involved in the passing game. I expect him to be HIGHLY owned.

Game Flow

I expect this game to go quickly in the favor of the Vikings. They are 16 point favorites at home, and I think that’s generous for the Redskins. Washington can’t generate anything on the ground (just two rushing TD’s all season) and are up against a Vikings D that has only allowed 1 rushing TD all season and a measly 90 yards rushing per game against. AP being out only furthers this narrative. Vikings will go up early and for good, and the Redskins will need to throw the ball. A. Lot. Does this script remind you of anything?

Darnold will be playing from behind and forced to try and move the ball through the air.

-ME

Oh that’s right! Exactly what I said about Darnold before he got lit up for 4 INT’s and a fumble. The Vikings are not as good at defending the pass as the Patriots and, though just barely, the Redskins are better producing through the air than the Jets. That means I don’t expect a shutout, but with an expected total of 13 for the ‘Skins – we might not get a whole lot of action. I think if you give Keenum enough attempts (which he will have), he can find the end zone at least once – which means McLaurin will be a great option.

I do believe the Vikings will run the game and I do believe going with 5 Vikings players is the right move here. Defense included.

DraftKings


Contest Selection

We will be entering our lineup into a Single Entry contest with 388 total entries. First place pays out 50X and min. cash is 2X.

Captain

Our captain options will boil down to
1. Volume
2. Big play potential
3. Not a Redskins player

This leaves us with Cook, Diggs, and Cousins. As mentioned above, I think the Vikings will get things started quickly and never turn back. That means a lot of rushing plays to keep the clock moving and end this blowout as quickly as possible. I think Cook will outperform Diggs in terms of DK points, but the extra $1000 in salary we gain from having Diggs as CPT instead of Cook and will prove valuable.


FLEX

Can we trust Diggs in this situation? Absolutely.

That extra $1000 we saved is going to allow us to upgrade Dan Bailey to Kyle Rudolph. Which leaves us with the lineup below. We cover the Vikings from every angle (except QB) and Smallwood gives us the best value on the Redskins.

DraftKings lineup for Washington Redskins vs Minnesota Vikings

Drink Of The Game!

Breckenridge Brewery Christmas Ale – Cheers!

Part Two: Pick Six Parlay

NBA Season Preview

We have the new NBA season upon us and what a wild off season it has been. Kawhi Leonard won Finals MVP with the Toronto Raptors then packed his bags, grabbed his passport and joined the Clippers. Russell Westbrook was traded to join his former teammate James Harden in Houston. Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving joined forces to crush what was left of the Knicks hopes and dreams to join the Brooklyn Nets. A lot more happened but I’m in no mood for a dissertation.

NBA Title Favorites:

  • Los Angeles Lakers+300
  • Los Angeles Clippers+333
  • Milwaukee Bucks+575
  • Philadelphia 76ers+750
  • Houston Rockets+850
  • Golden State Warriors+900
  • Utah Jazz+1300
  • Denver Nuggets+1800
  • Boston Celtics+2500
  • Brooklyn Nets+2500
  • Portland Trail Blazers+3500
  • Toronto Raptors+3500
  • Indiana Pacers+5000
  • New Orleans Pelicans+6000
  • Miami Heat+6600
  • San Antonio Spurs+6600
  • Dallas Mavericks+7500
  • Orlando Magic+12500
  • Atlanta Hawks+15000
  • Detroit Pistons+15000
  • Minnesota Timberwolves+15000
  • Oklahoma City Thunder+15000
  • Sacramento Kings+15000
  • Chicago Bulls+20000
  • Memphis Grizzlies+20000
  • Washington Wizards+20000
  • New York Knicks+25000
  • Charlotte Hornets+30000
  • Cleveland Cavaliers+30000
  • Phoenix Suns+30000

We have the usual suspects like the Lakers, Bucks, Rockets and Warriors at the top of the list here. This year unlike past years, we don’t have a team we can pencil into the Finals right now. Warriors took a hit when it was announced Klay Thompson would be out for the season with the torn ACL he suffered in the Finals this past summer. Defending champion Raptors cruise down to the middle of the pack with the loss of Kawhi to the Clippers.

Two teams in particular could turn into great value bets come the post season. Denver and Portland. Both teams have superstars in Jokic and Lillard and have plenty of talent to compliment them. If you are one who likes to make futures bets now, those two can give you great value.