Monday Night Showdown – UPDATED

Conner will get reps on the ground, targets in the air and has the potential to rack up 2+ TD’s tonight against a Dolphin’s defense that is lackluster to say the least. He is our auto-lock for the Captain spot tonight.

INJURY UPDATE

Jaylen Samuels has been ruled INACTIVE for tonight’s game – pivot accordingly! We see a small uptick in points for JuJu and big value in Snell Jr. Here is our updated lineup

Dolphins @ Steelers (-14.5) – MNF

Holy cow could this game have any more potential to be a complete disaster? The Steelers are favored by two touchdowns at home against the Dolphins who are managing to average a measly 10.5 points per game. The Steelers defense has played solid this year and will be jumping at the chance to get to Dolphins QB Fitzpatrick early and often. This is shaping up as a game where the Steelers get an early lead and just pound the rock on the ground to kill the clock, though they will still be scoring touchdowns along the way.

Steelers Defense Potential

Showdown lineups have started trending towards a higher usage in DST (thanks Patriots) and even a significant % of Captain usage (Patriots 40% yesterday) and the Steelers are in a position tonight to gain a ton of points – but at a FLEX price of $8k, will it be enough to justify using them at Captain?

To answer that, I want to look at the potential that James Conner has tonight. He should get 15+ looks on the ground and 5+ catches in the game tonight which gives him potential for 150+ total yards and he always has 2 TD upside. Let’s say he goes for 120 total yards with 5 catches and a TD – that puts us at 23 DraftKings points – 34.5 in the CPT spot. The Steelers would certainly need to get a DST Touchdown to match that kind of production, and the additional money saved by using them as the Captain would allow us to move Boswell up to McDonald – I’m not sure that McDonald has a huge advantage on Boswell, and while the D may be productive tonight – I don’t think they will out perform Conner.

FLEX

I think Conner will be the highest owned player in the slate and be close to the highest Captain % along with Steelers D. The contest we are playing in is very small with only 28 lineups, so we don’t want to be too risky. I think that a Steelers game script that has a lot of pounding the ground is the most likely so I want to stack Samuels with Conner, use Rudolph to correlate with both as they do well in the passing game, play the Defense because it’s the Dolphins and then I need to play one Miami guy so I’m going with Ballage. He will rely on finding pay dirt in order to help us out here, but that is true for any of the Dolphins players and Ballage is +200 as an anytime TD scorer which is tied for the Dolphins favorite with Walton (though he’s much cheaper than Walton).

Notice there is no JuJu… Total pass yards for Rudolph props are set at 239 yards, and with Conner, Samuels and McDonald, I just don’t think there is enough of an upside for JuJu unless he can find the endzone twice (which is totally possible against this Dolphins defense, but I don’t think the game script favors the Steelers throwing a lot).

Cheers

10/24 TNF Pick Six: Part Two

NFL Odds – MyBookie

Six Leg Parlay

Part two of this weekly series involves a six leg NFL parlay that includes the Thursday Night Football game. No in-depth analysis. No crunching numbers. Just an old school Pick Six.

Minnesota Vikings -16.5 (-115)

New York Giants ML +255

Jacksonville Jaguars -6 (-110)

New England Patriots -13.5 (-110)

Green Bay Packers -4 (-105)

Oakland Raiders ML (+260)

Parlay Pays Out 169:1 (Nice)

10/21 NFL Showdown – MNF Patriots/Jets

UPDATE

We have our first cash on Beers and Bets after nailing the Patriots domination over the Jets. Nothing big, but 42nd out 681 was good enough to 3X our entry and start things off on the right foot.

White did not snag a TD which ended up hurting, and a Bell TD would have swung in our favor as 90% of the lineups ahead of had the Patriots DST in the CPT spot. We are back at it again on Thursday Night when the Redskins head to Minnesota to reenact what we just witnessed here on MNF.

Breakdown

Alright folks, we finally have a Monday night game that isn’t going to be a complete snooze fest. The 6-0 Patriots visit the 1-4 Jets…. oh wait, I thought this wasn’t going to be snooze fest?

The Patriots will put this game away in the first half, which makes for some difficult decisions at the Captain position tonight. As always, we want to look for correlation within our lineups to ensure we maximize the game flow should it go how we expect. If you were going to Max Enter 150 lineups into an MME, this would be a great game to spread the love around 4-5 Pats at the Captain spot, but as usual, I’m playing in a single entry tournament this evening (681 entries) so I want to go with a high floor, high ceiling guy to build around.

Game Flow

As I mentioned above, I think the Patriots will put this game away in the first half. They are 10 point favorites on the road, and have been firing on all cylinders for the entire season. Vegas has the implied totals at Pats – 26.5 and Jets – 16.5.

Sam Darnold only played one game before getting a bout of Mono and has only played one game since returning from the illness. He got the luxury of playing with the lead the entire time both games (Save for one drive at the end of the Buffalo game where he went 2-8 for 9 yards)

The last time these two teams played, the Patriots were up 30 – 0 before 2 defensive TD’s from the Jets, so I have zero confidence in their ability to hit their implied total today.

Patriots will go up early and control the clock with their ground game. Darnold will be playing from behind and forced to try and move the ball through the air. He hasn’t been tested against the clock and trying to keep the game relevant, so I’m banking on the Patriots D taking advantage of some mistakes tonight.

Lineup

The Patriots have too many weapons which makes it difficult to rely on anyone on any given game day. I do think they will keep the ball on the ground a lot and so my biggest decision is between White and Michel for Captain – DraftKings is 1 point PPR so I think White is the safest bet here as he gets equal opportunities in the rushing game as he does the passing game. He is $11.1k in the Captain spot so we will need him to find paydirt to give our lineup a shot at cashing, but I’m betting on 2 TD’s tonight.

I mentioned earlier that I thought Bell was the only value on the Jets offense, and he will be the only Jet I play tonight. A 5-1 Patriots onslaught will win the slate tonight. Edelman is the safest bet to rack up targets out of the Pats WR’s and I believe he will the highest owned and highest CPT % tonight.

A strategy that has paid off in the past, but not often, is stacking White and Michel together. I think this is the perfect opportunity for this stack as the rush game will be the main point of attack and especially with Burkhead being ruled out tonight. This also means I want to fit in Brandon Bolden because the Pats LOVE to utilize as many RB’s as possible to throw everyone off in fantasy. Stacking 3 RB’s on the same is a strategy I will ONLY employ for the Patriots in a blowout scenario. Proceed with caution.

This leaves me with $7500 left and the Pats defense is the most expensive DST I’ve seen on a showdown this season. I hope this will turn people off of using them because there isn’t a better game script than Darnold playing from behind in his second game back against the best defense in the NFL. Lock them in tonight (playing a DST is another strategy I rarely employ in showdown).

Beverage of the Game

Tonight I will be sweating my lineup while also streaming the best team in the NHL (Shoutout to Altitude for not being available to watch anywhere) and so I will be drinking Breckenridge Brewery Avalanche Ale in support of the Colorado Avalanche tonight – at least when my showdown lineups crashes and burns, I will have the ice to soothe the pain.